Friday, July 28, 2017

Decline in Existing Home Sales and Refinances; Still Up from Last Year

Existing Home Sales

The recent decline in pending home sales, translated into a decline in existing home sales. The latest data showed a drop of 1.8 percent for the month of June. Compared to the same time last year, existing sales are up 0.7 percent.

On the flip-side, home prices are up a sharp 6.5 percent from a year ago. The latest median home price is $263,800. The supply of homes continues to remain a big challenge in many markets throughout the country. Supply dropped 0.5 percent in June which places the national average at 4.3 months. The most notable concern relating to home availability is that supply is 7.1 percent lower than the same time last year.

Mortgage Bankers Association Loan Application Weekly Data

After last week’s large jump in refinances, it seems that the little upward movement in rates has quelled the brief refi excitement. The latest numbers reported from the Mortgage Bankers Association is that refinances only increased 3.0 percent for the week ending July 21st. Purchase applications declined a minimal 2.0 percent for the same week. The good news in the latest report is that purchase applications are 8.0 percent higher than the same time last year.

FHFA House Price Index

The FHFA Index, which measures the prices of single-family homes was up 0.4 percent in May, which is the softest increase since January. However, home prices are up for this index by 6.9 percent from the same time last year. This is the biggest year-on-year spread in 3 ½ years.

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller House Price Index

The question people are starting to ask is “is home price appreciation slowing?”

Although the existing home sales report showed a strong increase in home prices, the latest Case-Shiller data points to more modest price growth. For the 20 major cities in which the data is based, home prices only increased 0.1 percent for the month of May. Expectations were that home prices would be up by 0.3 percent according to the Econoday estimates. Overall home prices are higher by 5.7 percent from last year in the Case-Shiller data.

Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

· Monday July 31st - Pending Home Sales
· Tuesday August 1st – PMI Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, ISM Mfg Index
· Wednesday August 2nd - MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Report
· Thursday August 3rd - First Time Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
· Friday August 4th – National Employment Report

As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can. Please feel free to reach me at (707) 455-7070.

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